I've held AAF for a few years and found the move over the past couple of months confusing too. I wondered if most of the move is in anticipation of the mobile money IPO this year. Would say ~50% of the analysts had an IPO related question in the recent earnings call, despite management keeping pretty tight lipped about any of the details for now.
You make a great point - I've just noticed Taldar confirmed on the same day as earnings that they plan remained to IPO it in July. That was probably responsible for a good bit of that day's move. As for the wider move, may well be about the IPO, though it seems weird for the market to react so slowly to it.
When I'm analysing a stock, I will always decide for myself what to consider as exceptional or operational - partly for consistency across multiple companies, and partly for the reasons you describe here. Normally, my assumptions align well with the annual report, but every so often you get dividends from investments in operational cash flow (but they are not from the business in question's operations), or sale of assets or businesses in the non-exceptional categories, which I personally don't like - I consider all such transactions as non-recurring and therefore exceptional by nature.
Yeah, it’s always a bit of a judgement. The income statement and cash flow statement both have their advantages and disadvantages, but by using both and reading the footnotes in detail, you can get most of the way there. Quite often, if I’m not sure how nonrecurring something is, I’ll use a 10-year average of that entry as a percentage of revenue, to smooth it out.
I've held AAF for a few years and found the move over the past couple of months confusing too. I wondered if most of the move is in anticipation of the mobile money IPO this year. Would say ~50% of the analysts had an IPO related question in the recent earnings call, despite management keeping pretty tight lipped about any of the details for now.
You make a great point - I've just noticed Taldar confirmed on the same day as earnings that they plan remained to IPO it in July. That was probably responsible for a good bit of that day's move. As for the wider move, may well be about the IPO, though it seems weird for the market to react so slowly to it.
When I'm analysing a stock, I will always decide for myself what to consider as exceptional or operational - partly for consistency across multiple companies, and partly for the reasons you describe here. Normally, my assumptions align well with the annual report, but every so often you get dividends from investments in operational cash flow (but they are not from the business in question's operations), or sale of assets or businesses in the non-exceptional categories, which I personally don't like - I consider all such transactions as non-recurring and therefore exceptional by nature.
Yeah, it’s always a bit of a judgement. The income statement and cash flow statement both have their advantages and disadvantages, but by using both and reading the footnotes in detail, you can get most of the way there. Quite often, if I’m not sure how nonrecurring something is, I’ll use a 10-year average of that entry as a percentage of revenue, to smooth it out.